The Beautiful Game

Ever been tempted to change you fantasy football team on the eve of a big weekend? Certain that Stevie G is due a big match and feeling like Lampard is struggling in the new diamond formation under Ancelotti?

More often then not I look back gutted as the player I put in failed to deliver and the guy subbed out, well he ends up having the game of his life.

Usually this is based on my gut instinct - and I am sure that others who dabble in fantasy football, or even betting do the same - make a call based on instinct or what the chap on BBC Sport is saying.  Even when going down the pub I always want to look out for, and be armed with that killer shout and prediction for the match. I love being right, and especially when it comes to football.

Through Twitter I picked up a notification about the Castrol Rankings, and think I may have found my answer to my friday dilemma. Is Gerrard in form? Should I pick Gareth Barry? Or who is going to make the difference in the UEFA Champions League next week? You can compare players, look up form over the season and also read up on some interesting predictions based on stats and facts (interestingly they even support one of my previous blogs about Manchester City).

Apart from the site being grey - its a pretty interesting resource and if like me you like to tinker with your fantasy team, or look out for that prediction before the game then well worth checking out.. www.castrolfootball.com

Poor old Gareth Southgate. He got crucified pretty much week in, week out last season as Boro got relegated from the Barclays Premier League. The media were after him, his players were moaning and the crowds were gutted to be losing their place in the North East elite (made only slightly better by the fact Newcastle were also relegated).

However, there was one bright shining light for Southgate. It was not all doom and gloom. His chairman and champion Steve Gibson was going to back him to bring the young squad back to the top level of English Football. Southgate was determined and spent the summer earning the club cash by selling the likes of Downing and Huth but consolidating his squad and setting his ambitions for the season ahead. If one thing can be said of Middlesbrough they have a great local spirit and have always had loyalty in their managers.

It had been a bit of an up-and-down start to the campaign. A couple of miserable home defeats were alongside some decent away performances and after beating Derby County 2-0 on Tuesday Southgate's team were sitting pretty in fourth place in the league looking in good shape in what will always be an erratic league. Then came the axe. Game over for Gareth Southgate.

It just does not make any sense to me. I could understand it if he was Roy Keane at Ipswich and his team was still looking for their first win, but in team playing pretty well overall and up near the top-end of the league?

If you were going to sack him, why not do it after the team had been relegated? A new manager will not be able to buy any players till January and will take crucial time to get to know his players and how to get the best out of them. I can't say I am the biggest fan of Southgate but I can't help but feel like he has been merked by Steve Gibson.

As the qualification process winds down and more and more countries learn their fate ahead of the World Cup draw in Durban on December 4^th – a true nightmare is potentially going to happen for FIFA.

We are not talking about riots, or issues with South Africa’s infrastructure – we are talking about the potential for the two best players on the planet not being present next summer. That very outcome is hanging over Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi. Not only is this a massive issue for FIFA’s PR and Marketing team, but it is also a massive blow to all those who love the game.

Firstly, Ronaldo’s Portugal have struggled throughout their Qualification Group and look like sneaking into the Play-offs at the expense of Sweden. However, that will mean immense pressure and some very strong teams in the Play-offs - potentially the winker might not get the chance to play on the greatest stage of all when in the form of his life. He may be arrogant, he may fall to the ground easily but he is an amazing talent, and the most expensive footballer in history. Although Portugal have knocked out England in recent times, I would love to see Ronaldo lighting up the tournament, at least up until the Quarter Finals.

Secondly, the shambles that is the management style of Diego Maradona looks likely to condemn Argentina to miss their first FIFA World Cup in 39 years. Late, late, late in to Saturday night a last minute goal by the 57 year old striker Martin Palermo (okay, 35) meant Argentina scraped a victory against Peru (the same Peru team that had played eight games, lost them all, scored two goals and conceded 24). They now have to look to their final match away against Uruguay and hope results go their way to clinch the last Qualification spot or even the South American Play-Off place. Maradona has used a staggering 70-something players during Qualification and by no means is he left with an easy fixture as Uruguay have a phenomenal record at Montevideo.

He seems to make impulsive decisions before and during matches. If Messi ends up missing the 2010 FIFA World Cup, not only will Adidas be smarting (he is their lead global athlete) but the tournament will feel like something is missing – now imagine if both were to miss out.

What this could mean is a real shift in the perception of the 2010 FIFA World Cup. Usually a tournament is talked about through the players. The Ronaldo World Cup of 2002, the Baggio World Cup of 1994, Pele 1958, Maradona 1986.

The 2010 FIFA World Cup could change that and move from superstar flair players, to organised and combative teams – working together towards the common goal. Victory.

 This will give the likes of Germany and excellent chance in South Africa, and also should see Brazil do well as Dunga has evolved a team of eleven isolated players in 2006 into a physical and powerful unit, with a hint of flair.

I can’t wait for next summer, but I just hope that come December 4^th Portugal and Argentina are in the hat and we avoid a FIFA World Cup being remembered as per Euro 2004 – the Greek Tragedy.

It is a massive few weeks for Hull City and Portsmouth, and maybe even more so for Phil Brown and Paul Hart. With both teams struggling for any kind of form or goal threat it feels as if we are not too far away from the first managerial scalp of the season. I imagine Alan Curbishley is eagerly watching the results of these two.

Hull City: Phil Brown

They literally exploded in to the Barclays Premier League last season.  In their first 18 games they won 7 times including away at Arsenal, Spurs and Newcastle (while also taking a point at Anfield). They seemed well placed to see out the season in style and manager Phil Brown was being talked about as a genius and breath of fresh air - there was even talk of Brown being a future England manager in waiting. What a difference a few months make.

From the debacle of away at Manchester City on Boxing Day and his half-time team talk to trying to convince Alvaro Negredo that Humberside was the new Madrid his team just look poor. Michael Turner seems a big loss for them and they are shipping goals for fun. A game at Anfield has demolition written all over it and I fully expect Hull to get thumped again. The challenge for Brown is to get his troops in order for the games against Wigan, Fulham, Burnley, Stoke and a massive match at home against Portsmouth. If they continue to ship goals then Brown will be packing his bags - he even now has the public show of support from his Chairman (usually the first nail in the coffin).

Portsmouth: Paul Hart

FA Cup winners in 2007/2008. A complete shambles 2009/2010.

Paul Hart did a solid job keeping the side up last term, but the sheer volume of change and gulf in talent between the players who came in on the last day of transfer day against Distin, Crouch, Defoe, Kranjcar and co means he now needs to perform a miracle. I am sure that the win away at Carlisle in the Carling Cup did them good but they need to string a few results together in the league. If they stay up then Paul Hart deserves a medal. They have got a good run of fixtures against Wolves, Spurs, Hull, Wigan and Blackburn but think they might get ripped to pieces by Everton on Saturday. Time will tell but they need points, and they need them quickly to save Hart's job - mind you if he goes who would take it on?!

I love football.

What a game, and time will tell if my prediction was correct and if that goal will kick-start Owen's career at Old Trafford. Money on Owen getting a seat on the plane to South Africa?

Forget the performance away at Burnley.

Forget the loss of Cristiano Ronaldo and Carlos Tevez.

I think Manchester United are about to kick-start their season. They got the result against Arsenal. They played some great stuff at Spurs and think the performance in the UEFA Champions League was just as good, a seemingly scrappy 1-0 win in Turkey should not be under-estimated.

And so to the most anticipated Manchester derby in decades.

If you want to prove that you have arrived in the Barclays Premier League and you want to be considered a real threat to any of the top 4 then you have to perform against United. Manchester City get that chance on Sunday and it will be fascinating to see how they get on.

City have been very impressive so far. Grinding out 1-0 wins, demolishing Arsenal and actually looking like a team but Mark Hughes will see this Sunday as a real watershed moment. Beating Arsenal at home is one thing, beating United on a previous encounter is another but beating United at Old Trafford when you actually seem to be about to break-through? Now that is a different story..

The loss of Adebayor is a massive blow to City and will mean they will lose that get-out ball from midfield which seemed to be working so well in the Arsenal match. I think it will be a fascinating match on so many levels and if City can get a result they will really be galvanised and thats before getting Robinho back and fit. They will approach the game full of confidence with an attack based on pure pace with Bellamy, Wright-Phillips and probably Petrov.

However, Spurs were flying till they got found out against United and I am sure that although Sir Alex Ferguson is expecting a tougher test - he will also be expecting the same result from his charges. On the day I think Manchester United will be too strong and with no Santa Cruz to replace Adebayor I do not think they can play their system. They usually take a while to hit their straps but not only do I expect United to beat City - I believe that they will look to make a statement and put City in their place.

I even believe this could be the match that will also kick-start Michael Owen’s Old Trafford career. It will be his first big match at Old Trafford and I would not be surprised to see United’s new number seven making the difference on Sunday.  

Last night at about 8:07PM I was able to begin to wipe from my mind the memory of the last time I saw Croatia play at Wembley on that dark, wet and miserable night back in 2007 when England were eliminated from qualification for UEFA Euro 2008. As Frank Lampard stepped up to convert the penalty it felt like it was going to be a great night. The team playing well, keeping the ball, creating chances and scoring goals - but there was one element which I was getting a bit stuck on. Good old Emile Heskey.

Before the game I was fully bought in to starting Heskey over Defoe. Sure Defoe has been on fire for Spurs so far this season, but the England team look so much more balanced and get the best from Rooney and Gerrard when there is a big guy who can hold the ball up. However, the two chances that Heskey missed in the first half are ones that I am confident Harry Redknapp's wife could of scored - and if we have designs on winning the FIFA World Cup then we need two strikers who can offer a goal threat.

He is great at doing his job, has pretty good movement and makes Rooney play well - but I think that now we have the luxury of secured qualification Fabio Capello should turn to Carlton Cole. We know Heskey can do the job well. However, could Cole offer the complete package that as well as the hard graft and link play delivers an eye for goal?

It stunned me to find this from the Daily Mail;

Cole is easily the best option to replace Heskey.

I believe that he should start, and finish, both of the remaining competitive FIFA 2010 World Cup Qualifiers. There are 9 months for the team to be developed and refined and you could argue that with a fully fit crop of players only the right midfield and partner for Rooney are the ones that do not pick themselves (assuming David James is fit and playing well). Lennon deserves a run in the team - and he should get that after his MoM last night - but if we do not give Carlton Cole the minutes on the pitch we will never know and then what happens if Heskey gets injured in the first match?

Come on Carlton, don't let me down

We all know that there is previous between England and France. It started a long time ago and still seems to rumble on. With Michel Platini's surge to power at UEFA it seems as though each season there is something new to talk about that demonstrates his passion against the success of the Barclays Premier League.

Right now it is the amazing decision against Chelsea that will stop them buying any new players till 2011. The punishment was dealt out by FIFA after the club was found guilty of getting a young winger, Gael Kakuta to break his contract with Lens in 2007.

Since achieving UEFA Presidency in 2007 Platini has tried to launch, and shared an official opinion on a number of new ideas and innovations to the game. However, to me it seems that often these are born out of Platini trying to fight the dominance of the English game in Europe.

The vast TV Rights money, huge transfer fees, foreign ownership and clubs mounting debts has created an aura of negativity across Europe against the Barclays Premier League, and the Chelsea ruling seems to be the latest battle. I am sure that this kind of thing has gone on in football for decades and all the top teams from all the top leagues must be guilty of it. I am not saying that I agree with it, and think it is very harsh to punish the young player as well as the club, it is just that it always seems that English teams suffer most.

I grew up watching Italian, Spanish and English football and Eduardo's 8.0 against Celtic looked like a cruncher compared to other examples I have seen throughout European football. Yet it is Arsenal who suffer the ban. It would not surprise me if the paper talk is proved right and Manchester United are the next team to suffer the same kind of ruling as Chelsea, then probably Manchester City. With these two incidents the authorities have set the precedent, and they now have to enforce them each time - I can't wait to see what happens the next time there is a dodgy penalty award against Arsenal.

Platini has recently backed the 6+5 idea (six home international players and five foreign players) to be introduced in top flight team in Europe. Platini has also backed caps on wages and transfer spending - and all foreign ownership of clubs. He has stated that he wants to cut the number of Italian, Spanish and English teams in the UEFA Champions League to a maximum of three instead of four and has also talked about banning clubs from European competition based on the debts of the clubs. All are valid ideas, but it seems that English clubs will get hit the hardest.

Too much money, not enough home-grown talent, clubs built on debt and foreign ownership, money taking over the game, players running clubs. These are Platini's view of the English game and he seems set to try and disrupt it.

I love the Barclay's Premier League, and it is so great because of the big business it has become and I have enjoyed English clubs having success in Europe (and the benefits this seems to be having on the national side) and hope that an English team can lift the UEFA Champions League trophy in Madrid in May and see Platini grit his teeth and applaud.

Sod it, I even wouldn't mind if it's Chelsea.

So Liverpool are out of the title race. Spurs are going to win the league and Everton are going to get relegated.

Well that is the story of the Barclays Premier League table if you look at it today. The first three matches have been played and there have been more than a few shocks. Manchester City look a tight unit, Burnley are world beaters and Michael Owen has forgotten where the goal is.

However, that is the classic knee-jerk reaction that some Fantasy Football managers would adopt when they pick Abou Diaby from Arsenal because he scored two against Portsmouth at the weekend (he only scored 4 goals in 36 matches in 2008/2009). The football season throws up numerous shocks at the start, players gaining fitness and learning to play new systems and with new team-mates. Just think about Hull last season in the Barclays Premier League.

What I think is the interesting thing this year is that the difference between the top teams and the rest of the division is becoming less, and the competitiveness of the 'mid-table' Barclays Premier League teams is growing each season. The TV cash and sponsorship is still growing the game at the elite level and will continue to do so as brands invest more in players and passions (of which football is one of the greatest) and broadcasters pin more and more of their strategy on top tier live rights.

But for me the big change has come with the power shift to Spain's La Liga as Manchester United and Liverpool have lost two key players to that league and although Chelsea are still strong (and I believe will be Champions) they have not been able to strengthen as more and more players choose La Liga over the Barclays Premier League. Meanwhile, Manchester City have eaten away at the Arsenal Squad with the signings of Adebayor and Toure.

With the Big Four not being able to strengthen as much as they would like, and emerging teams like Spurs, Sunderland, Aston Villa and Manchester City all spending big I expect more of the Big Four to lose games.

I still believe that the usual suspects will be there or thereabouts come May, with maybe Manchester City crashing the party, but I can see the required points total for the champions being lower than recent seasons and more teams taking points off the Big Four, I think the United, Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool will each lose 4-5 games. I might even be so bold as to say within a couple of seasons it will be more a Super Seven...